Fourth Transformation in Mexico: Economic populism or precautionary economic policy?

https://doi.org/10.33110/cimexus200111

Abstract

The objective of this article is to determine whether the economic policy implemented by the government of the Fourth Transformation (4T) is populist. Through the study of several variables characteristic of populist economies, such as wages, social transfers, public spending, inflation, exchange rate, unemployment, and public debt, a Populism Index (PI) is constructed for the period 2006–2023. This index reflects the degree of influence of these variables on economic policy decisions in the country. Finally, using a machine learning (ML) regression model called Random Forest (RF), the importance of each variable on the PI indicator is evaluated. The results show that the 4T's economic policy is not classified as populist, but rather as a precautionary economic policy.